Probability Theory
MTH411/511T - Spring 2024

Instructor: Adam S. Sikora (Math Dept.)
Class meets: Tu,Th 9:30-10:50am. Your attendance is expected.
Recitations with Shiruo Wang on Th: T1: 2:00-2:50pm Boldy 113 T2: 3:30-4:20pm Capen 108
My office hours: Tu,Th 1:30-2:30pm or by appointment.
Class announcements will be sent to you via email or UBLearns.

Text: Fundamentals of Probability, with Stochastic Processes, by Saeed Ghahramani. 4th, 3rd, or 2nd edition. (However, there are many books covering similar material, eg. very compact Schaum's Outlines of Probability and Statistics.)
Topics: axioms of probability, conditional probability, Bayes' Theorem, independence, random variables (continuous and discrete), distribution functions, expectation, variance, covariance, correlation, special distributions, Central Limit theorems.

Tentative Schedule of HWs, Quizzes, and Tests
Tue Thu Recitation
1/25 No recitation
1/30: HW1 due 2/6
2/1 HW1, Quiz
2/6: HW2 due 2/13 2/8 HW2, Quiz
2/13: HW3 due 2/20 2/15 HW3, Quiz
2/20: HW4 due 2/27 2/22 HW4, Quiz
2/27: HW5 due 3/7 2/29 HW5, test review
3/5: Test1 HW1-HW4 3/7: HW6 due 3/14 HW5, Quiz
3/12 3/14: HW7 due 3/28 HW6, Quiz
3/19: Spring Break 3/21: Spring Break
3/26 3/28: HW8 due 4/4 HW7, Quiz
4/2 4/4: HW9 due 4/11 HW8, test review
4/9: Test 2 HW5-HW8 4/11 HW9, Quiz
4/16: HW10 due 4/23 4/18 HW10, Quiz
4/23: HW11 due 4/30 4/25 HW11, Quiz
4/30: HW12 due 5/7 5/2 HW12, test review
5/7: Test 3 HW9-HW12

The tests will take place during regular class hours. IDs will be checked. You are expected to take each test as scheduled, unless you have a documented medical or other documented valid reason. Contact me before taking an exam if you are seriously ill.

There will be no final exam.

No makeups will be given in recitation quizzes, but the lowest mark will be dropped without penalty.

Homework: at Webwork and Gradescope. Links will be posted soon. You are asked to prepare Gradescope HW in Latex. See Intro to Latex for Gradescope.

Math Help Center is primarily for lower division math courses, however some TA's advertise their availabilty to help with mth411 as well. See Help Center Schedule .

Final MTH411 grade will be based on

Final MTH511 grade will be based on

The total: 90% (total) guarantees A, 88% guarantees A-, 80% guarantees B, 70% guarantees C, 60% guarantees D. (B+,B-,C+,C- will also be utilized.)
The final grades may be slightly curved. I may institute short, simple quizzes in class to give everyone a chance for extra points. However, there will be no other extra credit.
If your score is below 55% you may fail the course.

Academic integrity is a fundamental university value. Students caught cheating on exams, quizzes or HW will be penalized. You can discuss hw problems with others, but cannot copy and submit other people's solutions.

Incomplete: Incompletes will only be given for reasons beyond your control, serious illness. You must be passing the course to get an incomplete. University policy is that if you receive an 'I' grade (incomplete), then you are also assigned a default grade, which is the grade you have already earned averaged with a 0 on the remaining work. It is easy to see that even a good student will normally receive an 'F' as the default grade. This appears on your transcript, as 'I/F', until you make up the incomplete or 15 months elapse, when you would receive the default grade (you would receive the F in this example).
Students who received an incomplete in a previous class should not register for this class, but must file a petition form with the Math Department.